A question has haunted the aftermath of the Great Recession: where is all the inflation? If the Federal Reserve is going to spike the money supply most massively in the context of minimal economic growth, as it has since 2008, it would seem that a severe price inflation must ensue. Yet the consumer price index has grown at merely 1.5% for the past five years.
Back in the “stagflation” era, the 1970s and early 1980s, and cued up by President Nixon’s taking the dollar off gold in 1971, the Federal Reserve printed money like never before. Inflation duly roared. From 1971 to 1981, the CPI leapt a phenomenal 125%, 8%-plus per annum. And in the nine years after the 1973 peak, economic growth averaged less than 2% per year.
Economic stagnation plus Fed activism equals stagflation: we saw it all thirty-five years ago. What gives these days? Why only half of the stagflation bargain?
The recent break in the gold price, in which the king commodity has completed a 20% drop since the high point of late last year, holds a clue.
In the 1970s, “inflation” was a general phenomenon, one of whose manifestations was an increase in that pet statistic of the government’s, the CPI. However, the main way that investors responded to the Fed blowouts of the era was not to bid up consumer prices or anything like that, but to get their holdings out of asset classes that brought dollar returns.